By N. C. Bipindra

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to India on December 4 and 5, 2025, is shaping up to be more than a routine annual summit.

It marks a critical juncture in India–Russia relations, coming at a time when New Delhi is recalibrating its strategic posture, diversifying defence suppliers, and navigating intense geopolitical pressure from the West.

The visit, therefore, offers both sides an opportunity to stabilise a partnership that is historically deep but currently under strain.

At the centre of the agenda is defence cooperation, the bedrock of the bilateral relationship for over five decades.

India’s concerns over the delayed delivery of the S-400 Triumf air defence systems encapsulate the broader challenges facing Moscow’s defence-industrial base, stretched by the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions.

With two S-400 units still pending and expected only in 2026–27, India is seeking clarity and predictability. That Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh openly flagged these delays signals New Delhi’s increasing impatience and its willingness to push Moscow harder than before.

Yet India cannot afford to dilute the partnership. The S-400’s proven performance during Operation Sindoor, in which it enabled the Indian Air Force to bring down Pakistani aircraft at long range, has reinforced its strategic value.

The decision to designate the system as Sudarshan Chakra and to launch a decade-long national air defence upgrade further binds India to Russian platforms for sustainment, training and integration.

This interdependence explains why India continues to explore possibilities such as additional S-400 units or even Russia’s next-generation S-500 system, despite expanding its US defence purchases over the last decade.

For Russia, the visit is equally significant. Putin’s trip to New Delhi, his first since 2021, allows Moscow to demonstrate that it retains influential partners outside the West.

With India still a major buyer of Russian oil and equipment, the Kremlin views this engagement as essential for both economic and geopolitical resilience.

Its statements emphasise the “particularly privileged strategic partnership”, signalling a desire to keep India firmly within its diplomatic orbit even as New Delhi moves closer to the US and Europe.

However, the visit takes place against a complex backdrop. India’s December oil imports from Russia are set to fall to a three-year low due to sanction-related risks.

Washington continues to pressure India on energy and weapons purchase: pressure that has intensified with US tariff actions on Indian goods.

At the same time, India’s long-term trajectory is toward self-reliance and supplier diversification. This means Russia can no longer assume default primacy in India’s defence mix.

The Modi–Putin summit is therefore not about flashy new deals.

Instead, it will be a test of whether both countries can adapt their partnership to new realities: Russia’s constrained production capacity, India’s push for indigenous defence manufacturing, and the broader geopolitical struggle reshaping global alignments.

The meetings between Defence Ministers Rajnath Singh and Andrey Belousov — covering S-400 timelines, potential S-500 interest, and shipbuilding projects — will set the tone for whether the defence relationship remains sustainable.

Ultimately, the visit is less about symbolism and more about strategic recalibration. Both nations still need each other, but in ways more pragmatic and less sentimental than before.

Putin’s December 2025 trip will clarify whether the India–Russia partnership can evolve to meet these shifting demands; or whether it risks drifting into uncertainty.

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