By N. C. Bipindra
Stockholm/New Delhi: A new nuclear arms race is accelerating across the globe, with South Asia and East Asia emerging as major flashpoints, according to the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, released June 16, 2025, by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The report warns of rising nuclear risks driven by the expansion and modernisation of arsenals in India, Pakistan, and China, amid the unraveling of international arms control regimes.
SIPRI notes that China’s nuclear expansion is the fastest in the world, with its arsenal growing by around 100 warheads per year.
As of January 2025, China had at least 600 nuclear warheads and had nearly completed construction of 350 new Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos in both desert and mountainous regions.
If this pace continues, China could match the ICBM capacity of the US and Russia by the end of the decade—although even with 1,500 projected warheads by 2035, it would still hold only about one-third of the current United States or Russia stockpiles.
In parallel, India and Pakistan are steadily expanding and upgrading their nuclear capabilities.
India has likely added more warheads in 2024 and continued work on new delivery systems, including canisterised missiles, capable of launching quickly and potentially carrying multiple warheads.
This move could mark a shift toward maintaining ready-to-use nuclear forces, raising risks during crises.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is building up fissile material and delivery systems, indicating plans to increase its arsenal over the next decade.
The two countries’ long-standing rivalry took a dangerous turn in early 2025, when a four-day military tension briefly escalated into direct conflict after the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir. India launched Operation Sindoor between May 7 and 10 to avenge the death of 26 civilians.
While the crisis was contained soon, Operation Sindoor involved strikes near Pakistan’s nuclear-related military infrastructure, prompting concerns over how misinformation and escalation could trigger a nuclear exchange.
“This was a wake-up call,” said Matt Korda, associate senior researcher at SIPRI. “The potential for disinformation and miscalculation to spiral into a nuclear conflict is real and growing.”
Globally, SIPRI estimates there were 12,241 nuclear warheads as of January 2025, of which about 9,614 are in military stockpiles. Approximately 2,100 warheads remain on high operational alert, mostly in the US and Russia, but China may now be joining that posture.
The trend of post–Cold War reductions is over, SIPRI warns, as dismantlement slows and deployment accelerates.
While Russia and the United States still hold nearly 90% of all nuclear warheads, their modernisation programmes are no longer unmatched. China’s rapid buildup and the steady enhancement of South Asia’s arsenals are redrawing the global nuclear map.
SIPRI also highlights a broader collapse of the arms control architecture. The New START Treaty, the last agreement limiting American and Russian strategic forces, expires in early 2026, and no successor is in sight. The US has signaled it wants future agreements to include China—a prospect that complicates already stalled talks.
“The old formulas of arms control no longer apply,” said SIPRI director Dan Smith. “Technological shifts in AI, cyber, missile defence, and quantum systems are creating unprecedented uncertainty and instability.”
The report warns that advances in AI-driven decision-making could speed up crisis escalation, while developments in space-based and underwater systems may affect the survivability of nuclear forces.
As the arms race intensifies, public debate is also shifting. In Europe, some NATO members are open to hosting US nuclear weapons. In Asia and the Middle East, conversations about acquiring nuclear capabilities are gaining traction.
SIPRI concludes with a stark reminder: nuclear weapons are no guarantee of peace, and in some cases may raise the risk of catastrophic miscalculation.
“India, Pakistan, and China are now central players in a destabilising global trend,” the report concludes. “Without renewed diplomatic efforts, the world could soon face a far more dangerous and unpredictable nuclear landscape.”
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